For many years this publication has said there will not be a WWIII. But the spectre of war in the Middle East rears its hydra-like head once more and we must address the issue again.
Were our initial assessments wrong — Or is the World fear-mongering again?
For those not paying attention to the news (good for you) Israel and Iran (Gaza) are at odds again. Iran just a few days ago did a “massive strike” on Israel in response to the attack on the Iranian Consulate in Syria a few weeks ago. Which was a counter attack for Gaza and other transgressions.
The attack consisted of over 300 drones and missiles directly from Iran on Israel. It should be noted this is unprecedented. Not due to their longstanding rivalry, but due to the simple fact it was overt.
No shadow jabs, denials or what if’s, just plain retaliation.
We believe unlike other pundits and outfits this will lead nowhere unless someone decides to escalate. For Iran has called the matter “concluded” after it launched this attack, despite the vast majority of all munitions being intercepted.
This means the attack was to save face. Israel has vowed to retaliate, has retaliated as of an hour ago; despite a near 100% interception rate. Again — in our opinion to save face. Because total war would lead to both being annihilated. And few
So it’s all posturing.
But if this is sounding the alarm bells for everyone regarding World War III and we aren’t even close, what does WWIII actually look like?
“World War III will be a guerrilla information war, with no divisions between military and civilian participation.”
—Marshall McLuhan
This is a famous quote that draws the wrong conclusion, but is directionally accurate. McLuhan was wrong that WWIII would be a guerrilla information war, he was too specific.
WWIII will be a guerrilla war —period.
No division between civilian and military participation. No uniforms, no clear battle lines, no clear armies —causes or victors.
Just unseen, unrestricted guerrilla war.
And what that looks like is Systems Disruption.
WWIII is Already Occurring
Nation-States and Non-State actors have realized that Total War or even Guerrilla War ala the GWOT is unsustainable and ineffective. Ukraine is in stalemate and terrorism is a multigenerational strategy.
What is effective, however, is attacks from the shadows. Deniability is the new stealth. For retaliation can only occur if one has proof. Else it is “unwarranted”. This is the major differentiation between what people call the 4th Generation of Warfare and the 5th Generation of Warfare. It goes militaries beyond borders and into complete deniable operations.
How can you fight a ghost? Was it even sabotage or just an accident?
Network and infrastructure warfare are far more effective and valuable than a total war. Take a look at the following examples:
Francis Scott Key Bridge has collapsed, a key port in Baltimore, and large transport hub for America the collapse is threatening 80 billion in cargo imports and exports. The ship, which many speculate was hit by a cyber attack ran into a bridge support and collapsed the bridge.
Accident or Sabotage the World bay never know.
The timeline to fix this bridge… a decade.
A problem that will affect the American election and American prestige. A problem with long reaching implications with no one to blame. This is how warfare is conducted now hackers, activists and foreign sabotage teams. Where battles are won without anyone knowing they’re being fought. When victories and losses are hidden amongst the headlines.
Combined with global events it all adds up. Shipping is taking a major beating. The Red Sea is still under blockade from Houthi Rebels. The Panama Canal is experiencing disruptions as-well.
Is it bad luck and circumstance or is someone engineering this from the shadows?
We may never know.
Multipolarity
Under the old styles of warfare when you could see your enemy, when they held territory the West could be proactive. Satellites could monitor troop movements and buildup. Spies could hear the whispers from politicians. Your enemies intentions could be known and you could have meetings for peace.
Now the threats are more numerous and the weapons democratized. The attacks come from everywhere. The next attack is just as likely to come from a State as it is a mischievous angry teenager.
The West is not proactive anymore, it is reactive.
The surface area of the Western Order is too large to defend from the vectors of attack. In a philosophical sense the West must decide what encapsulates the West and defend that for a chance to survive. Else it will die by Lingchi — colloquially known as death by a thousand cuts.
The West due to leadership, capability and lack of foresight has lost its grip upon the International Order. As a result we have seen the ensuing chaos over the past several years. This isn’t just an “American” problem it is everyone…
Now that the chaos has started to spiral there is no stopping it.
Regionality of Power will enter primacy once more.
Our Global Peace has ended
And in its ashes a new World