European Elections foreign interference and
Georgian NGO Vote
Dubbed the “Russian Law” Georgia passed into law last month (May 14th 2024), legislation that would make Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s), Media Outlets or any organization receiving more than 20% of its funding from abroad to register as an “organization pursuing the interests of a foreign power”.
It’s called the “Russian Law” by critics for it mirrors a similar law put in place by Russia on “foreign agents”. What some deem as a “crackdown” on free speech, others see as reducing foreign interference.
The Georgian Parliament overturned the Presidential Veto of the Foreign Agents law, risking its status as a candidacy as a future EU member State. The President (not of the ruling party) is at odds with the ruling party running Parliament. Parliament overturning the Veto causes the Bill to come back into force some time within the next two months. The President vows for a referendum on:
“Whether we want European future or Russian Slavery.”
This is a microcosm, of the fight for Europe’s Destiny. An Elite, Public, and a House divided.
Battleground Europe
All of this was spoken out loud at the ballot boxes this past weekend during the European Union elections. Centrist parties stood firm while Right wing parties gained massive support. Germany, Austria, Sweden, Italy and France. Europe is fracturing. Its future uncertain.
This was most evident in the previously mentioned France. In a crushing defeat by a two to one margin; Emmanuel Macron’s centrist pro-European party Renaissance scored just 15%, defeated by Le Pen’s National Rally, netting more than 30% of French votes cast.
Macron has dissolved the Lower French Parliament calling for a snap election later this month. A move that many are considering suicide. No doubt a massive Gamble, but one that resembles something of a true Democracy.
Ursula Von der Leyen just finished her re-election campaign as President of the European Commission trying to secure the American order. While she has won another term (now till 2029), Right Wing parties have gain territory; rejecting Pax Americana for other fates.
It is in our opinion a moot effort. In fact it may be detrimental to Europe. European Parliament seats provide little Power of their destiny. The European Commission holds more power and Von der Leyen is still in charge. While she may feel more pressure, the future of Europe grows more murky.
An Autonomous Europe?
The question of Europe’s Future and its citizens is one of autonomy. Does Europe continue to be pulled apart by global interests or assert their own?
But astute readers will know this has been a smoldering question for many years —as Europe was relegated to a meddling Power underneath the American Unipolar geopolitical system. Now they have a chance at autonomy again, but do they have the capacity to stand on their own?
Autonomy starts with Industry. And Europe’s industrial base has been declining for some time. Perhaps more important than that, Europe is amidst an energy crisis at the moment. Can the Continent be autonomous without cheap abundant energy?
In our opinion, no.
No one can be the master of their own destiny if they do not have an economic engine or reliable security that is underpinned by energy stability. Cheap reliable energy is a cornerstone of both. Europe has neither at the moment. They have sacrificed their Industrial Capacity and by extension Autonomy, for imagery.
Europe has become the chessboard for the other great powers because of the energy reliance. But with calls from the Right for autonomy they are not only torn from outside, but inside the house as-well. The European Experiment it seems is coming apart from all sides…
For Europe is reliant on the Russians for natural gas and the Chinese have also infiltrated the European Power supply:
Taking advantage of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Chinese investors first stepped in to acquire substantial stakes in what have long been regarded as “sovereign” sectors, such as power transmission and distribution grids, in the early 2010s. Key among those was the world’s largest utility company, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), commonly known as the State Grid…
China, America, and Russia are all at odds with one another with Europe unable to wrestle control from all of them…
Without the ability to assert its autonomy at the moment Europe will have a painful road ahead of them regardless of the path it chooses. But for now, it is force to watch as Superpowers cast lots for its parts.
The Battle for Europe: China vs America
If there was any indication of a “New Cold War” you’d point to Europe. And the Americans are losing ground.
China has been angling into Europe via Hungary, as Budapest has welcomed China with open arms. China is no doubt angling to rebuild Ukraine, as Russia tries to once again end the war with peace talks. And Volkswagen has purchased a five percent stake in the Chinese auto manufacturer XPeng — for their battery technology and to regain more of a foothold in the Asian market.
The Americans have been trying to pressure the Chinese via battery and EV technology sanctions. If the Europeans followed suit they’d lose billions of dollars and potentially need to divest from their holdings. They are unlikely to comply with such measures.
Coda
Europe is trying to play both sides against each other, but with Trump on the horizon; and Economic volatility; Europe will once again be forced like many countries to choose sides.
It is clear that the people of Europe are unhappy with their current situation, but will their efforts to alter their destiny be in vain?
Only History knows.