The Q3 Outlook
Q3 is upon us, numbers will be coming in and so will the punditry. Will current trends continue? Will the market level off or will it stay volatile?
Powell continues to cover for the Fed’s inneptitude. “There’s still alot we don’t know about inflation.” Is among some of the most humorous & memed quotes. It is unfortunate that this is not a humorous situation.
The Fed’s main tracker of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is still at highs of 6.3%. CPI is at 8.6%, of course that is with heavy meddling. With price increases ranging from 5 to 120% the metric inflation will be based upon which basket and the items the Fed puts in.
In short, without proper continuous tracking the Fed will manipulate inflation data to satisfy the market. And with good reason:
GDP Now (the Atlanta Branch of the Fed) is estimating GDP growth at -1%.
If True, we will be in a “Technical Recession”, however, this analysis may be wrong for a few reasons: