The Afghanistan Abomination

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Background

The war on terror is coming to a close; not with a bang, but a whimper. Earlier this month, (August 2021) the Biden Administration announced it would be pulling out of Afghanistan. Fulfilling the Promise set out in April. From the Press Conference:

“The United States cannot afford to remain tethered to policies creating a response to a world as it was 20 years ago. We need to meet the threats where they are today,” he said.

“The current security situation only confirms that just one more year fighting in Afghanistan is not a solution, but a recipe for being there indefinitely,” Biden said on Thursday.

True statements, however the hasty withdrawal plan has left Kabul in Chaos,


Analysis

“If you could make God bleed, people would cease to believe in him. ~ Ivan Vanko

The “God” of Westphalia, is or was undeniably the United States of America. Indeed the only nation-state, which conquered the World.

One could argue, perhaps fairly convincingly, that the waning power of America and the blood was first drawn in the jungles of Vietnam. Though, the 60’s were a long time ago in the collective memory of the Public. It is ancient history to the modern generation and culture. 9/11 is another black mark upon America’s reputation. However, the beginnings of the Iraq War were more about retaliation from being blindsided, rather than some notion of weakness.

Now it is undeniable. Never has the modern public seen such a humiliating defeat and incompetent use of blood and treasure. Whatever could be said about America tucking tail and running from Hanoi, pales in comparison to Kabul.

Kabul is the new Benghazi.

Predictions that Afghanistan would fall from 90 days to within 72 hours showcases the wholly incompetence at the highest levels of both intelligence and military communities of Western Powers. The World now knows the United States is not a serious, or capable nation.

Such a show of weakness will undoubtedly be used by opportunistic opponents as a sign to take advantage of the slipping nation. And given the disastrous outcome in Kabul the United States will lash out in a vane attempt to reassert dominance over the World.



Where does Afghanistan go from here

Victory calls for something more, and that’s the Spirit of the People." ~ Vo Nguyen Giap

As noted by Martyr Made with his twitter thread, the Taliban was the best option for stability for Afghanistan and its people.

Indeed it would only be Chaos is the power vacuum wasn’t filmed, Libya or Syria are prime examples of this. Not a life of “Freedoms” and “Democracy” but a life nevertheless.

But Kabul fell within 72 hours, not solely because of the American’s hasty retreat, but the people of Afghanistan deemed it so. They had the tools and the training to fight back, but they did not have the Will or the Courage to fight the Taliban. And so the Taliban swept the country with little to no resistance.

The United States’ presence was a tourniquet, and not a surgery. It wasn't designed to create a stable government or nation build. For modern Counterinsurgency's main strategy is to maintain a light foot. To let life return to normal and the counterinsurgent force to be more of a protector than an oppressor. To “democratize” a nation is to be the oppressor, to be willing to stay for generations and upheave Society to remake it in your own image. It is to be the British in Hong Kong and rule for over a hundred years. To think in terms of not quarters, seasons, or even decades, but generations.

An entirely different strategy with an entirely different implementation. Even the idea that America could democratize any nation, without absolute invasion was absurd. Another example of the out of touch nature of the Elites. The Taliban intend to be there forever, and that outlook changes actions dramatically.


Afghanistan will likely remain a pawn to larger forces, even with the power of Cryptocurrency and the trend towards city-states. Both require technological expertise, adequate hardware, and some level of stability. It is not clear if all three will coalesce within the region.

Irrespective of that, Necessity is the mother of invention.

And the Afghan people are resourceful people.


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